UK Middle East policy unlikely to change under Labour

The suggestion last week from British Foreign Secretary David Cameron that the UK could bring forward its formal recognition of a Palestinian state falls into efforts to induce the need for a cessation of the fighting in Gaza, with the conflict now in its fifth month. The former UK prime minister thought that such a move could help make a two-state solution, currently stalled, an irreversible process, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firm opposition.
Despite Lord Cameron’s suggestion, the hope in some circles is that the UK’s advanced position, though “significant,” remains in the realm of the symbolic and is unlikely to muster enough traction in a divided world, particularly since such a “theoretical” state is likely to remain contentious even among Palestinians and their Arab or Iranian allies.
Many have even raised that the backlash against Cameron’s suggestion among Conservative Party MPs could mean that the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer, which is tipped to win the UK elections set for later this year, might introduce policies conducive to pushing for that recognition in a drive toward achieving lasting peace in the Middle East.
Despite the genuinely popular demonstrations in the UK week after week demanding that the government pressure Israel to stop its onslaught against the Palestinians in Gaza, along with other demonstrations calling for the immediate return of the hostages held by Hamas, the weight of history would make such a step a highly controversial one, regardless of which party leads the country after the general election.
The support expressed for Israel by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Starmer since Oct. 7 reflects the country’s long-held pro-Israeli position. While this position is often dented by individual MPs who veer from the official line, this does not amount to Britain changing its colors, as witnessed at previous junctures in this “forever conflict,” when diplomatic maneuvering and threats of recognition were put on the table but never amounted to actual policies.
Cameron’s recognition idea is not new for the UK. In October 2014, Parliament took the historic step of voting to back the recognition of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel, following a similar war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in July and August of that year. The Labour Party pushed its MPs to back the symbolic resolution, which gained the support of 274 lawmakers, with only 12 voting against.
Today, Labour, which is tipped for a landslide election win, risks seeing its victory margin reduced, as some voters feel turned off by the cautious stance it has taken on the Gaza war. It has shown it is not ready to diverge from the government line on this issue. However, Labour’s march to replace the Conservatives is not thought to be stoppable by a reluctant British Muslim community, or even British Jewish voters — the latter due to accusations of antisemitism that marred the party during the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. 

Labour risks seeing its victory margin reduced due to the cautious stance it has taken on the Gaza war.

Mohamed Chebaro

If anything, the conflict in the Middle East presents a dilemma for the Labour Party, whose foreign policy is being tested ahead of the election. A few weeks after the eruption of violence in Gaza, dozens of local Labour councilors, mainly in predominantly British Muslim-dominated areas in the north of the country, resigned in protest at the party’s stance concerning Gaza. They sought to pressure Starmer to clearly call for an immediate ceasefire. As a result, Labour is likely to struggle to win back the trust of British Muslims, which could hurt its majority in Parliament, but is unlikely to prevent it from forming the next government.
A recent poll showed that only 60 percent of British Muslims would likely vote for Labour if a general election were held tomorrow, down from 86 percent in the 2019 election. Survation, which conducted the survey, found that the Green Party attracted 14 percent of British Muslims, while 9 percent were willing to back the Liberal Democrats. Starmer’s net favorability was worse in northwest England, at minus 18 percent, a region that features constituencies with a large Muslim voter base.
According to the survey, British Muslims’ identification with Labour as their natural choice has fallen from 72 percent in 2021 to 49 percent this year. On top of this, 85 percent of British Muslims believe the political position of parties on the Gaza war will be important in influencing their vote at the polls this year.
Also, many in the UK believe that its recognition of Palestine would be unlikely to make much difference under a Conservative or a Labour government, unless it is born from a process and an international drive that would achieve the obvious but elusive two-state solution, or any formula that would grant Palestinians their right to a state and Israel its security, which has clearly been clearly shattered since Oct. 7.
Among EU nations, only Cyprus, Malta, Sweden and a handful of former Eastern Bloc countries have recognized Palestine. But as well as influencing other European nations, British recognition would be especially symbolic. Having ruled what was then Mandatory Palestine from 1920 to 1948, Britain bears a historic responsibility to help resolve the conflict.
Over the three decades since the Oslo Accords were signed, Labour and Conservative governments alike have found it imperative to launch initiative after initiative to help break the deadlock in the Middle East. The current war in Gaza is said to have further eroded trust between all sides and even with potential peace-brokers like Britain, which was won with the formation of the Palestinian National Authority.
One can only hope it will not take yet more decades to break the current stalemate and its many ramifications. Instead, let us hope that efforts are reignited to not only bring about an end to this conflict but also pursue the necessary steps to put into practice the recognition and establishment of a Palestinian state that would at last live in peace alongside Israel.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.