Turkish-Syrian reconciliation may be too big a task for Iraq

Once again, Turkish-Syrian reconciliation is on the agenda, this time with Iraq stepping forward to offer mediation.

Iraq’s emergence in this role may come as a surprise to some, given its complicated history of turmoil, internal strife, and foreign intervention. But despite these challenges, Iraq is actively seeking to adopt a nuanced approach to regional conflicts, drawing upon its experience and positioning to enable dialogue between conflicting parties.

It has already proved itself in the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, which was eventually brokered by China but after mediation efforts by Baghdad, which hosted a series of talks between the two regional powers. Additionally, an Iranian official recently confirmed that talks between Iran and Egypt were taking place in Baghdad.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has expressed his government’s commitment to brokering reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus, recalling his country’s role in the normalization deal between Tehran and Riyadh. “We are trying to create such a foundation for reconciliation and dialogue between Syria and Turkiye. God willing, we will see some steps in this regard soon,” Sudani said, and he was in contact with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Highlighting the shared security threats from Syria faced by Iraq and Turkiye, Sudani referred to regions not controlled by the Assad regime as a threat. Turkiye shares that perception. Ankara is frustrated by plans by the YPG, which it views as the Syrian branch of the outlawed PKK, to hold elections in northern Syria from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa to Manbij and Afrin. This is an attempt to trigger tensions in the area that are likely to affect Iraq as well.

Ankara is frustrated by plans by the YPG, which it views as the Syrian branch of the outlawed PKK, to hold elections in northern Syria

Sinem Cengiz

The main goal of talks between high-level Turkish, Syrian and Russian officials in 2022 was to eradicate the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in northern Syria. The talks failed after Damascus pressed for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria, which is not an option for Ankara unless the Kurdish threat is eliminated. Its conditions have not changed. Turkiye’s readiness for military withdrawal from Syria is under specific and already known frameworks that include a constitutional amendment, fair elections in Syria, an honorable and safe return of Syrian refugees, and cooperation in the issue of “combating terrorism” linked to the PKK and YPG.

Besides the withdrawal of the Turkish presence in northern Syria, Damascus also consistently requires each meeting to involve Iran, Turkiye, the Assad regime and Russia, aiming for a political solution in Syria based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254 from 2015, which called for a ceasefire and political settlement in Syria, established a roadmap for the country’s political transition, and required free and fair elections within 18 months. Damascus restated this condition to reveal a role for Iraq in achieving reconciliation. However, for both Iran and Russia, Turkish-Syrian reconciliation is not a priority now. For instance, Russia attributed the latest collapse of the normalization steps to the war in Gaza. Since then, the conditions in Gaza have not changed; rather the situation has deteriorated, with increased casualties and destruction. In light of the failure in Russian and Iranian attempts at Turkish-Syrian talks, Iraq has stepped in.

Iraq has an advantage over other regional countries when it comes to Turkish-Syrian reconciliation. Its historical ties with both Turkiye and Syria give it a unique position as a mediator. It is a neighbor to both, and is not isolated from the devastating effects of the Syrian crisis.

Despite Iraq’s proven competence in mediating regional conflicts, finding common ground between Ankara and Damascus will be challenging

Sinem Cengiz

Sudani’s mediation offer may have three motivations: First, as a response to Ankara’s recent overtures following Erdogan's visit to Iraq. Second, Sudani’s desire to illustrate Baghdad’s regional stature and a new foreign policy that seeks to build regional relationships and bridge gaps between conflicting parties. Third, as part of a broader strategy to address security challenges along its borders, related to counterterrorism and refugee management, and fostering a conducive environment for economic cooperation.

Despite Iraq’s proven competence in mediating regional conflicts, achieving significant results in Turkish-Syrian reconciliation and finding common ground between Ankara and Damascus will be challenging. There are divergent interests between Turkiye and Syria, entrenched hostilities, and the involvement of other regional and international actors. Iraq’s mediation attempt may also face skepticism from the US, Russia, Iran, and the Gulf states, which have their own interests and agendas in the region.

The outcome remains uncertain. If a global power is required to play the role taken by China in the Saudi-Iranian deal, Russia would be the only option. Iraq’s mediation attempt is promising, but the road to reconciliation remains fraught with complexities, and the task may be beyond Baghdad’s capacity to resolve independently.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz