State fragmentation in the Middle East as a global threat

The events of the past few weeks in Yemen have underscored the risks of state fragmentation in the Arab world. The Iran-allied Houthis split the country in half when they seized power in 2014. The internationally recognized government controlled much of Yemen’s territory out of the temporary capital of Aden, while out of Sanaa the Houthis controlled the rest of the country.

In December, the Southern Transitional Council, a loose coalition of several groups from the southern part of the country, tried to split the territory under government control, in violation of Yemen’s law and an agreement it signed with the government in 2019, which was mediated by Saudi Arabia. While the attempt failed, it highlighted the dangers of further fragmentation in Yemen.

In Syria over the past several days, Aleppo experienced the deadliest round of violence since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces attacked government positions in the city. The group is a coalition of left-wing militias affiliated with the Turkish separatist PKK and serves as the military wing of a self-proclaimed “Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria,” also known as Rojava. The attack against Aleppo was in clear violation of an agreement it signed with the government last March.

Also in Syria, Israel has been encouraging the small Druze community in the south to secede and join Israel. Although farfetched, Tel Aviv’s meddling has distracted Damascus from its reconciliation and reconstruction efforts. In addition, hundreds of Israeli strikes have inflicted heavy damage on Syrian infrastructure.

In Palestine, Israel is hard at work destroying the Palestinian Authority, which was established in the 1990s by the Oslo Accords, which the two sides concluded with US and Norwegian mediation. Israel has supported parallel Palestinian entities and encouraged Israeli settlers to undermine the PA.

Sudan is facing attempts by the Rapid Support Forces, a notorious militia implicated in serious violations of human rights, to create a parallel government. Somalia is challenging the attempts of its breakaway territory, Somaliland, to legitimize its secession by getting international recognition; so far, only Israel has taken that step. Libya is split into several de facto fiefdoms vying for control and Iraq and Lebanon are facing serious challenges to government authority.

In its 2024 Fragile States Index, the Washington-based Fund for Peace listed several Arab countries as being among the most vulnerable in the world in terms of security challenges, political cohesion and economic performance. Four of them (Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) were in the top six most-fragile states. Palestine, Lebanon, Libya and Iraq were not far behind.

Similarly, these countries figure negatively in the Global Peace Index, produced by Australia’s Institute for Economics and Peace, which measures states’ relative “peacefulness.” Stating the obvious, its 2025 report said that the Middle East and North Africa is “the world’s least peaceful” region.

In all these cases, outside actors have fed local leaders’ appetite for power at the expense of central states, contributing to the erosion of state authority and the fragmentation of these countries.

State fragmentation in these countries not only poses a threat to internal security but has equally created serious challenges to regional and international security. By weakening central authority, this fragmentation creates power vacuums, enabling the rise of nonstate actors and transnational threats and generating regional instability.

We have seen such developments in almost all fragile states in the region. As government authority recedes and respect for law and order wanes, nonstate actors — including armed militias, terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates engaging in arms and drug smuggling and human trafficking — thrive.

These fragmented or fragile states then become breeding grounds for global terrorism, piracy, other transnational crimes and threats to maritime security and supply chains. With local security breakdowns and weakened economies, refugees and migrants head to other countries, at times threatening their host countries’ political stability, prosperity, security and social cohesion.

Facing fragmentation, these states become too weakened to cooperate effectively with their neighbors on shared security issues, such as combating cross-border trafficking or terrorism. This inability to cooperate gets compounded when external actors become involved.

Fragmented states often attract competitive external powers that vie for influence, further complicating internal dynamics and potentially transforming local conflicts into broader geopolitical contests. Fragmentation also leads to the erosion of international norms, such as respect for the rule of law, including international humanitarian law, human rights law and the law of the sea, as we have seen in Yemen, Palestine, Sudan, Somalia, Syria and Yemen.

In all these cases, outside actors have fed local leaders’ appetite for power at the expense of central states.

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Regional and international efforts are needed to prevent state fragmentation by mediating conflicts. Beyond mediation, there is an additional need to help fragile countries improve governance and economic well-being and restore stability and internal cohesion. Training security forces, providing conditioned economic assistance and encouraging investment are some of the tools to immunize states against fragmentation.

Saudi Arabia has launched important initiatives to prevent or reverse fragmentation in a number of cases in the region. With France and Norway, it has spearheaded efforts to restore the peace process in the Israel-Palestine conflict by establishing the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. It has championed the cause of a united and peaceful Yemen, rallied international support for Syria and actively mediated the Sudan conflict. The Trump administration has been supportive on most of these issues.

More needs to be done by the international community. The EU can do more to help in most of these conflicts through active mediation, economic aid and improved governance. NATO can help by providing training for counterterrorism forces. Other big powers can also contribute politically by pressing external actors to refrain from stoking internal conflicts in the region and providing economic and security assistance when needed.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. X: @abuhamad1