Saudi-Egyptian-Turkish troika should seek Lebanon win

More and more, we are talking about a new alignment in the region. Turkiye, which was once viewed with suspicion by both Egypt and the Arab Gulf states, is getting closer to Cairo and Riyadh. The reason is obvious: Egypt, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia all want a stable region.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Friday stressed that countries in the region are finally recognizing that they have collective strength. He added that they need to take responsibility for the fate of the Middle East and not wait for external powers to come and solve their problems. Fidan was probably alluding to regional integration and a new regional security architecture.

We should remember that Europe endured centuries of feuds and two major world wars until its countries realized they were better off cooperating than competing. This is how the EU was born — it is a framework to organize relations between states that ensures security and prosperity for all. As Fidan said, after 100 years, the region has awakened. Its countries have finally realized they need to cooperate.

These three countries have both the soft power and hard power to stabilize the region and lead it into prosperity

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The three contenders to be the core of this regional integration are Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye. These three countries can thrive on regional stability. They have already aligned their policies on Sudan and Somalia, while Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are working together to make sure Syria is stable, secure and prosperous. Ankara has also expressed strong support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

These three countries have both the soft power and hard power to stabilize the region and lead it into prosperity. While Fidan admitted there is a long road ahead, this ambitious project should start by seeking an initial success — a pilot project. In this tumultuous region, the easiest example to work on is Lebanon.

Obviously, the country with the most leverage in Lebanon is Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has a lot of influence over the country’s political class. It is highly regarded by the Lebanese people. Over the last few years, the Kingdom has lost patience with the sleazy and greedy members of the political class. However, with the support of Egypt and Turkiye, Lebanon can be fixed.

The question is: how? How can these countries score a success on which to build a strong alliance? An opportunity is coming. Lebanon is due to hold parliamentary elections in May, which would mean a new Cabinet and a new prime minister will be put in place. The three states, with Saudi Arabia taking the lead, should lobby the parliament to agree on a prime minister and a government that has the power to act. This would allow Lebanon to take decisions and execute them quickly, without going through the quagmire of parliament.

The most important project the government should immediately work on is the electricity file

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The stability and prosperity of Lebanon has three prerequisites. The first is for Israel to withdraw and stop attacking the country. The second is for Hezbollah and all other parties and factions to surrender their arms, including communal weapons, so that state authority can be properly exercised over all the country. The third is to break the corruption network that controls the state.

Former minister Nasser Yasin, who led the Lebanese emergency committee during the Israeli aggression in 2024, said last September that the country is located at the center of a triangle formed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. He stated that the country’s foreign policy should be linked to these three pillars.

To be able to negotiate with Israel properly, Lebanon needs a deterrent. The best deterrent would be a joint defense agreement with Turkiye, similar to the one Syria has clinched with Ankara. It could start with an agreement to train and equip the Lebanese military and then develop as needed. The agreement should be flexible to give Lebanon leverage in any negotiations with Israel.

In parallel, the three powers should negotiate with Iran to put pressure on Hezbollah to surrender its arms in exchange for protection. After Hezbollah, all other parties should follow and surrender their communal arms.

A special court should be established to prosecute those involved in corruption. The court should allow regular citizens to file complaints, in addition to an investigation conducted by the state. Fighting corruption should be coupled with restructuring government departments. In this respect, the government should conduct an audit of all departments and ministries, as well as banks. Once those involved in corruption and embezzlement are identified and held accountable, funds can be recovered and returned to depositors.

A ministry for administrative organization should be put in place. This ministry would oversee the restructuring of all other ministries to optimize their effectiveness and efficiency in providing services to citizens. The government should release all the redundant employees who were hired by politicians only to gain favor with their constituents.

The most important project the government should immediately work on is the electricity file. Electricity is viewed by the Lebanese as an indicator of the success of their country’s governance. Lebanon should replace the old electricity facilities and install new power plants that provide uninterrupted power to the entire country.

While the Lebanese file seems complicated, it is easier than it looks. It needs a strong regional will to shield it from Israel and twist the arm of the corrupt political class. Success in Lebanon would be a low-hanging fruit that the troika of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye can deliver on quite easily and quickly. This could be the pilot for a much larger, more ambitious project and the first step in the long journey Fidan spoke about.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.