The risks of Iran’s military escalation against Gulf states

Let us imagine the following scenario: When US and Israeli forces struck Iranian territory on Saturday, the Iranian forces limited their response to targeting Israeli and US naval vessels at sea — nothing more. What would have happened then?

In that case, the Gulf Cooperation Council states, along with Jordan and Iraq, would have remained outside the circle of military targeting. These countries would have responded as they did during the 12-day war between Tehran and Tel Aviv in June 2025, when they unequivocally and without exception condemned the “Israeli aggression” against Iranian territory, describing it as a violation of sovereignty and international law.

Similarly, what if the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had occurred at a time when relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors were positive? Statements of condemnation would undoubtedly have been issued denouncing the targeting of the supreme leader, condolences would have been conveyed and there would have been widespread official and popular Islamic and Arab sympathy.

From the very first day, its missiles and drones were directed toward all Gulf states without exception

Hassan Al-Mustafa

Let us recall that when the helicopter carrying former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed in May 2024, Gulf states dispatched envoys to offer condolences. King Salman sent Minister of State Prince Mansour bin Miteb bin Abdulaziz to lead a high-level Saudi delegation and personally convey the Kingdom’s condolences.

Such a hypothetical scenario would have worked in Iran’s favor, strengthening its political, humanitarian, security and negotiating position, and presenting Tehran to Arab and international public opinion as a wronged state subjected to military attack by external powers and targeted by a far-right government in Israel.

Iran, however, squandered this reservoir of political strength and sweeping sympathy. From the very first day, its missiles and drones were directed toward all Gulf states without exception, including Oman, which had been mediating negotiations. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi worked until the last moment to prevent war, supported the Iranian narrative and rejected statements casting doubt on Iran’s positions. Yet even Oman saw its ports attacked and vessels targeted in its waters.

Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X, addressing the Gulf states: “We do not believe in, nor do we intend, to attack you.” He added: “However, when the bases located in your countries are used against us, and when the United States relies on these forces to carry out operations in the region, then we will target those bases.” He further stated: “These bases are not part of the land of those countries; rather, they are American soil.”

In these remarks, Larijani misses the mark. Countries in the region, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, have explicitly declared that they will not allow their territories, airspace or territorial waters to be used as launch points for strikes against Iran. Secondly, the Iranian attacks have not been confined to what Tehran considers US bases at Al Udeid, Al Dhafra and Juffair, but have instead extended to civilian, economic, diplomatic and tourist targets.

Is there a US military base in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province? Are energy facilities in Ras Tanura, the Burj Al Arab hotel or the airports of Kuwait and Dubai “American soil?”

Beyond that, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted the US Embassy in Riyadh, in the Diplomatic Quarter, disregarding international conventions.

The escalation against Saudi Arabia represents dangerous conduct that could push the region into a spiral of violence, which Riyadh neither seeks nor desires and is striving by all means to avoid.

The escalation against Saudi Arabia represents dangerous conduct that could push the region into a spiral of violence

Hassan Al-Mustafa

For this reason, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strongly worded statement expressing its “rejection and condemnation in the strongest terms of the flagrant Iranian attack that targeted the US Embassy building in Riyadh.” It affirmed that “this cowardly and unjustified attack flagrantly contravenes all international norms and laws, including the 1949 Geneva Conventions and the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which grant immunity to diplomatic premises and personnel, even in cases of armed conflict.”

The statement was precise in its wording, offering messages that Iranian officials would do well to read carefully. Riyadh considered that “this flagrant Iranian behavior, which comes despite the Iranian authorities’ knowledge that the Kingdom has affirmed it will not allow its airspace or territory to be used to target Iran, will push the region toward further escalation.” It reiterated its “full right to take all necessary measures to protect its security, territorial integrity, citizens, residents and vital interests, including the option of responding to the aggression.”

To date, Saudi Arabia has not exercised the option of “responding to the aggression,” as it seeks to halt the war between Israel and the US on one side and the Iranians on the other. It is working to spare the Gulf region the catastrophic repercussions of continued confrontation or its expansion, as diplomacy remains the only viable and safe exit for all parties.

Riyadh possesses considerable patience, grounded in strength, rationality, forward-looking calculation and restraint from emotional or impulsive reactions. However, if Iran continues targeting the Kingdom and other Gulf states, if civilian casualties occur and if energy supplies, security and the economy are affected, then other options may emerge. These are options Iran should not compel its neighbors to adopt. They will seek to preserve the fragile security that, if it were to collapse, would leave Iran itself as the greatest loser, deepening its isolation, draining its capabilities and stalling its development at a time when Saudi Arabia seeks peace for the Iranian people and all peoples of the region.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher specializing in Islamist movements, the evolution of religious discourse, and relations between the Gulf states and Iran.

X: @Halmustafa