Israeli election merry-go-round begins in earnest

The date of Israel’s next general election has yet to be set, but the entire political system is already gearing up and gathering momentum, much of it reactive to the findings of opinion polls. The first major move on the ever-changing chessboard of Israeli politics has come from Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who previously served as prime ministers under a rotation agreement in what became known as the “change government” formed in 2021. They have announced that they will run together as a single faction in the forthcoming election.
In principle, this move is aimed at creating greater clarity by presenting a centrist bloc as a viable alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right-messianic and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners. However, this is unlikely to be the final move in a game of musical chairs, in which alliances are constantly negotiated, and a stream of veterans and novices look for a political home to increase their chances of election to the next Knesset.
One party likely to disappear is Benny Gantz’s center-right Blue and White. It has become apparent that support for Gantz, a former defense minister who only a few years ago led the largest faction in the Knesset without being able to form a government, is quickly evaporating. His allies are deserting him in search of new political homes. One figure who parted ways with Gantz some time ago, and whose next move is being closely watched, is former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot and his party, Yashar. Will he join the Bennett-Lapid alliance, or, as some suggest, align with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, which leans more to the right than the center? Alternatively, he may choose to test his newly formed party independently at the ballot box and negotiate his way into government afterward.
There are two key pitfalls in forming political alignments based on opinion polls. First, polls are accurate only at the time they are conducted. Without a confirmed election date — though by law elections must be held by Oct. 27 this year — respondents are less committed, and their responses may simply reflect a general desire for unity or protest. Second, such alliances often produce an ideologically mishmash of ideas with weak or unclear platforms, further eroding trust in politics. As a result, whoever wins may ultimately disappoint voters who fail to get what they believed was said on the hustings.
That said, it may still be too early for such concerns. The immediate task of the opposition is to unseat Netanyahu and his populist government, which has become exponentially more authoritarian and broken all rules of good governance as a result of its leader’s corruption trial. A potential game-changer may emerge from behind-the-scenes efforts to secure a pardon for Netanyahu. He has already submitted a request to President Yitzhak Herzog, reportedly supported by US President Donald Trump. However, the request was highly unconventional, amounting more to a demand to dismiss all charges while allowing him to remain in politics and seek another term of office — hardly something the Israeli legal system could accept without compromising its integrity.
Netanyahu’s request to be pardoned is an extraordinarily audacious one. Under normal circumstances, a pardon requires either a conviction or an admission of guilt, but neither condition has been fulfilled. Recently, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara grudgingly heeded Herzog’s request that she would be open to initiating plea bargain discussions with Netanyahu’s legal team, but insisted that such talks would have to be “without preconditions and without harming the trial.” 

Opposition forces must offer a coherent vision.

Yossi Mekelberg

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Netanyahu, who recently revealed that he had recovered from a bout of cancer, might eventually agree to a plea deal to save his skin, especially as he realizes that his chances of winning the next election are slim. Such an outcome would likely force him to leave politics altogether. While this could bring relief to many, both domestically and internationally, it would also profoundly shake up an Israeli political system that has long been defined by alignments either in strong support of Netanyahu or in opposition to him.
However, this scenario may be premature. Given the advisers who currently surround the Israeli leader, he may remain defiant and refuse any plea bargain that would end his political career. If he continues to lead Likud into the election, the vote will, to a large extent, become a referendum on his leadership and suitability to remain in power.
At the same time, opposition to Netanyahu and his coalition, however widely supported in opinion polls and obvious to many of us, is not enough to win elections, as past experience has shown. Opposition parties cannot present themselves as a credible alternative without offering a clear vision of a new and better direction. This condition remains notably absent for most of them, and especially on the most controversial issues such as the conflict with the Palestinians. Challenging a prime minister facing corruption charges, who was in office during the events of Oct. 7, 2023, and who has allied himself with deeply controversial political elements, might seem straightforward. Yet the opposition has so far struggled to articulate a compelling alternative.
Bennett and Lapid did restore a degree of normality during their brief time in government, and reversed some recent anti-democratic measures; they might now push, for instance, an agenda to draft ultra-Orthodox youth. Yet, while Lapid told the UN General Assembly in September 2022, when he was prime minister, that a two-state solution was “the right thing” for Israel, he has since expressed doubts about its feasibility in the near future. Bennett, meanwhile, opposes the idea outright. This suggests a continuation of the status quo regarding the occupation of the West Bank and potentially parts of Gaza.
Furthermore, the Bennett-Lapid partnership may undermine its own prospects by declaring in advance that it will not include Israeli Arab parties in a future coalition. This blanket exclusion of parties representing almost one-fifth of Israel’s population risks both political and moral criticism, while also making it more difficult to achieve a parliamentary majority. This would mark a step back from their previous coalition, which notably included Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List; by all accounts Abbas was one of the most constructive members of that administration.
These are still early days in what is, as yet, an unofficial election campaign. However, given the intensity of the current political period, this election is likely to be one of the most consequential in Israel’s history. It could either reinforce the current trajectory, raising serious concerns about the country’s future, or mark the beginning of a new, although slow, trend toward a better future. For the latter to happen, opposition forces must persuade voters that they offer both trustworthy leadership and a coherent vision.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg