Middle Eastern stability impossible without a Palestinian state

The US remains the world’s foremost superpower, possessing unmatched political, economic, military and diplomatic resources. Throughout modern history, Washington has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to shape international events, influence regional dynamics and advance policies that serve its strategic interests. In many cases, these interests intersect with those of allies and partners, creating opportunities for cooperation and conflict resolution.

Today, nowhere is this influence more evident than in the Middle East, a region where the words “peace,” “violence,” “occupation,” “war” and “diplomacy” continue to dominate the political discourse. For decades, the region has been trapped in recurring cycles of conflict, with one crisis often overshadowing another. Yet there is growing optimism that one of the region’s most dangerous flashpoints — the long-running confrontation between the US and Iran — may finally be approaching a political resolution.

The negotiations between Washington and Tehran have been difficult, slow and, at times, frustrating. Nevertheless, both sides appear to recognize that continued confrontation serves neither party’s long-term interests. The economic costs, security risks and political uncertainties associated with perpetual tension have created incentives for compromise that did not exist in previous years.

Should an agreement ultimately emerge, it would mark a significant geopolitical shift. It would lower the risk of military escalation in the Arabian Gulf, reduce tensions across the region and open a new chapter in US-Iranian relations. Such an outcome would undoubtedly be welcomed by Gulf states, whose economic prosperity and national security depend heavily on regional stability.

The Palestinian issue has endured as the region’s most persistent source of tension, frustration and instability

Hani Hazaimeh

The US would likely use its considerable influence to ensure that any agreement is protected from actions that could derail it. Washington has both the capability and the motivation to discourage military adventures that threaten its broader strategic objectives. This raises an important question that extends beyond the US-Iran relationship itself: If America can exert pressure to prevent a wider conflict with Iran, can it also use its influence to address the conflict that lies at the heart of Middle Eastern instability?

Can Washington persuade — or if necessary pressure — Israel to engage seriously in negotiations aimed at resolving the Palestinian question?

This remains the defining challenge of regional diplomacy.

For decades, successive American administrations have invested enormous political capital in managing crises across the Middle East. Yet management is not the same as resolution. While conflicts have come and gone, the Palestinian issue has endured as the region’s most persistent source of tension, frustration and instability.

The reality is that no amount of progress on other fronts can fully compensate for the absence of a just and lasting solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Diplomatic breakthroughs elsewhere may reduce tensions temporarily, but they cannot eliminate the underlying grievances that continue to resonate across the Arab and Muslim worlds.

Many observers are understandably optimistic about the prospects for peace in the Gulf. An end to the US-Iran confrontation would undoubtedly represent a major achievement. Reduced military tensions would benefit international trade, energy markets, regional security and economic development. It would remove one of the most dangerous triggers for a wider regional war.

But peace in the Gulf should not be mistaken for peace in the Middle East.

The two are related but they are not identical.

The region deserves a comprehensive peace built on justice, sovereignty and mutual recognition

Hani Hazaimeh

The Middle East’s stability will always remain fragile as long as the Palestinian people continue to live without the realization of their legitimate national aspirations. The occupation remains a central political and moral issue that no regional realignment, security arrangement or diplomatic agreement can permanently sidestep.

Attempts to marginalize the Palestinian issue do not make it disappear. Instead, they merely postpone the moment when it must once again be confronted. Every effort to build a new regional order without addressing Palestinian rights ultimately encounters the same obstacle: the unresolved conflict at the heart of the region.

This is why any discussion of a new Middle East must include a serious commitment to ending the occupation and creating the conditions for a viable Palestinian state. Without such a framework, declarations of peace will remain incomplete and claims of regional stability will remain vulnerable to future upheaval.

The US now stands at an important crossroads. If it succeeds in helping bring an end to the crisis with Iran, it will have demonstrated once again the power of diplomacy over confrontation. Yet the true measure of American leadership will not be found solely in preventing one conflict. It will be found in whether it is prepared to apply the same determination, influence and political courage to resolving the conflict that has shaped the Middle East for generations.

The region deserves more than temporary calm. It deserves a comprehensive peace built on justice, sovereignty and mutual recognition.

An agreement between Washington and Tehran may help close one chapter of Middle Eastern instability. But the book will remain unfinished until the Palestinian people achieve their rights, the occupation comes to an end and an independent Palestinian state finally sees the light of day.

Only then can the Middle East move beyond managing crises and begin building a lasting and inclusive peace.

• Hani Hazaimeh is a senior editor based in Amman.

X: @hanihazaimeh