Burnham will quickly find that real solutions are not easy

Will Labour MPs dare ask themselves whether they were too hasty in pushing outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer out of office? Were they too eager to remove a PM who had legitimacy and won a resounding majority in a general election just two years ago, only to replace him with someone who lacks legitimacy and will ultimately have to call an election he will not be certain of winning?
Above all, will anyone dare ask themselves whether Andy Burnham, the new Labour MP tipped to be the UK’s next leader, has a plan, a vision and the means to meet voters’ expectations in a way Starmer failed to do? Does he have what it takes to uphold the national interest of the nation, improve its security, its growth and economic potential, its services and welfare in a way that is feasible and not costly simply by rewiring the state, as he claimed this week in his first major speech?
Does anyone believe that Burnham’s proposed devolution from London to provincial cities and counties will recalibrate the state and its institutions, regenerate society and erase the UK’s regional discrepancies? Is this the answer to the many adversities today’s Britain is suffering from?
Let us be clear, maybe Burnham will be better than Starmer in terms of style and form, but he — just like the most vocal opposition parties like the Conservatives, the Greens and the extreme-right Reform UK — does not have a magic wand to transform things at the speed an impatient electorate wants.
The UK, like many liberal democratic Western countries, has maybe reached the stage where its greedy form of capitalism has priced the nation and its people out. But be warned that all parties will still sell the electorate fake hopes to make them feel better for a short time. Yet they will fail to deliver real growth and societal improvements, as those would necessitate sacrifices that the electorate will not be able to stomach and hard work that politicians and societies are unlikely to embark on. Most importantly, they need time — a commodity that is not in great supply these days.
Burnham has pledged to give away a chunk of the central state’s power by handing greater autonomy to local leaders in a circuit-breaker for the sclerotic British economy.
The former mayor of Greater Manchester, the “King of the North” as he is called by his supporters, also said he would open a prime minister’s office in northwest England as part of “the biggest rebalancing of power” the UK has ever seen. In a speech aimed at bringing voters, Labour Party colleagues and the financial markets up to speed with his economic vision, Burnham said that “growth cannot be ordered from the top down — it can only be nurtured from the bottom up.” He will attempt to reverse almost two decades of low growth since the 2008 financial crisis through an approach dubbed “Manchesterism,” harnessing private and public money to invest in areas like transport, housing and infrastructure.
During the speech at the People’s History Museum in the city where he spent nine years as mayor, Burnham said a new government office in Manchester — dubbed “No. 10 North” — would oversee regional development and become “the nerve center of a rewired Britain.” It will be tasked with equalizing living standards across the country, with regional mayors given more power over housing, welfare and education as part of his planned reforms.
But Burnham’s rousing and positive speech was short on details and methodology, especially regarding where his government would find the necessary money to finance its many projects. In the UK, people tend to give any leader a chance for their first 30 to 100 days in office, but many questions are likely to mar his tenure, just like his predecessor.
Those questions are basic. Where will the money come from? Others, such as Boris Johnson, have spent massive amounts of money trying to devolve and regenerate but ultimately ran out of cash. Devolution and housebuilding do not come cheap. Welfare and defense spending hit any budget hard, especially as Burnham seems committed to not changing the fiscal rules and borrowing limits to please the financial markets.
Another source of money is raising taxes. Will Burnham raise them? Taxation, even amid ballooning demands, has become toxic. And many doubt he will go down that road, as it may threaten a new flight of wealth from the country and more economic stagnation.

People tend to give any leader a chance for their first 30 to 100 days, but many questions are likely to mar his tenure.

Mohamed Chebaro

Another question touches his legitimacy. Will he dare to call an election? He could be tempted, as he will likely be basking in some early popularity. But that could change quickly. Meanwhile, if he does not hold elections soon, his authority and legitimacy will always be in question, especially if he embarks on constitutionally sensitive changes.
And the list goes on. How will a new government under Burnham succeed in terms of housebuilding and motivating unproductive, dormant young people after everyone else failed? Yes, Burnham has so far proven himself better at making people feel good. He looks more relaxed and relatable than Starmer, but that alone does not amount to policy delivery and meeting a splintered electorate’s aspirations.
Change can initially make people feel good. Burnham could enjoy a brief honeymoon period and it is hoped that the seventh prime minister the UK has had in the last decade will have what it takes to transform his upsurge in popularity into serious policy delivery.
Promises on devolution and rewiring the nation and its institutions are important and welcome, but that will not save Burnham from the tests ahead and he will soon find that real solutions are neither cheap nor easy.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.