Iran looks for a grand deal with the West
Of all the parties that are entangled in the Syrian quagmire, Iran appears to be the most influential. Its alliance with the regime of President Bashar Assad is rock solid and goes beyond ordinary bilateral relations. Since the outbreak of the Syrian uprising more than two years ago Tehran has been one of Assad’s staunchest supporters, supplying him with weapons, intelligence, money and fighting men.
Last week it ordered its Lebanese Shiite ally, Hezbollah, to send fighters into Al-Qusair region near Homs to attack Free Syrian Army (FSA) strongholds along the Syrian-Lebanese borders. A former Hezbollah leader, Sobhi Al-Tofeli, told Lebanon’s Future TV, that Iran had pressed the Lebanese militia to fight along Assad’s army and that the organization was split over its involvement. It was another indicator that Tehran wields a huge influence on the course of the Syrian conflict.
Hezbollah’s direct involvement in the Syrian war is a serious development that will have major repercussions on the stability of Lebanon, which insists on noninvolvement, and the region. It is the latest example of the regional spillover effect of the Syrian war. Iran’s close partnership with Assad is one reason why the Damascus regime has refused international calls for a political solution to the conflict.
Tehran wants to be party to any deal that might be struck on the future of Syria and President Assad. Its Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi announced this week that his country was ready to host the next meeting of the quartet group on Syria. In addition to Iran, the quartet group includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The announcement coincided with a surprise visit by an Egyptian delegation to Tehran to discuss an Islamic initiative to seek a peaceful solution to Syria’s civil war. Such an initiative would bypass current efforts by the UN and the Arab League to seek a political settlement to the conflict.
Iran’s role in regional affairs goes beyond Syria. Today Tehran is a key player in Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza. It supports political unrest in Bahrain and is believed to have armed Houthi rebels in northern Yemen. Recently President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad paid a historic visit to Cairo and relations between Egypt and Iran are being normalized.
Iran is using its growing regional influence as a bargaining chip to break away from international sanctions over its controversial nuclear program. It wants to be recognized as a major regional player and it is demonstrating its power in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Tehran’s growing role was helped by flawed US policies in the Middle East. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 has triggered ethnic and sectarian divisions in that country and eventually handed power to pro-Iranian politicians and parties. A Shiite crescent extending from Tehran, through Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, was formed.
The Iranian influence on the controversial policies of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in Iraq cannot be ignored. He is accused of marginalizing Iraq’s Sunni minority and of triggering sectarian and ethnic violence. He has divided Iraq’s Shiites, especially those who are against Iranian interference, and antagonized the Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iran’s backing of Hezbollah in Lebanon is one of the key reasons for that country’s endemic political instability. Tehran’s influence on the hard-liners within Hamas in Gaza is a main reason for the failure to conclude Palestinian reconciliation until now. But it is in Syria that Tehran hopes to make itself an indispensable player.
The Syrian crisis has been described as a dilemma for President Barack Obama. The alleged use of chemical weapons by the Damascus regime recently has added pressure on Washington to adopt bold measures. But Tehran knows that neither the US nor its western allies are in the mood to embark on a new military adventure. The increasing role of radical Jihadists in Syria, some of whom have pledged fealty to Al-Qaeda, has scuttled attempts by the Syrian opposition to receive arms from the West.
Iran is looking for a grand deal to strike with the West; one that recognizes its regional role, ends its international isolation and allows it to keep its nuclear program alive. The latter is a strategic goal of Iran, which it keeps fighting for in the 5+1 talks. A deal with Iran may not appeal to the Israelis, who want to end this program through a military strike, but Tehran could still provide necessary assurances that it will not build nuclear weapons. Obama’s stand on Syria is being viewed in Israel as a test of his resolve on Iran.
In return Iran is likely to promise to change its position on many regional issues. It can force Al-Maliki in Iraq to tone down his confrontational policies. In Syria it can push President Assad to accept a political settlement to end the civil war and contain the Jihadists. If Tehran’s gambit does work then it will be at the expense of the Arabs whose Sunni coalition remains divided. Iran’s grand deal will come as a result of a mixture of brinkmanship and realpolitik.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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