The Lebanese people can send strong message to Hezbollah

Lebanon is in the hands of Hezbollah; there is no doubt about this. But the Iranian proxy is increasingly under pressure as it needs to avoid total chaos in the country. Hezbollah and Iran want a weak, obedient state that will obey them on all military and security matters, cover their illegal actions, and support their social and health activities, but also a tool that can reach out to the international community when needed. In short, they need a weak state, not a collapsed one.
The situation is becoming increasingly uncontrollable, with the state institutions — sovereign security and military included — on the brink of chaos. Military personnel are being hit hard by the dropping value of the Lebanese pound and are finding it difficult to do little more than survive. It is hence becoming more and more difficult for Hezbollah to control the country.
Despite this increased pressure, Hezbollah, with its ally President Michel Aoun, is blocking the formation of a Lebanese government for several reasons. On a regional level, it prefers to wait and see how the nuclear deal will work out between the US and Iran. It can then decide what actions are needed and what political gains can be added. And on the local level, as a bonus, it gets to humiliate the position of caretaker prime minister and remind everyone who the kingmaker in the country really is.
I do not think that a new government or new elections would change anything, as the fundamentals of the problem would stay the same. However, they might allow for some ways to move forward and bring humanitarian help to the country.
Hezbollah would obviously still be able to manage its operations and access resources, even if the country collapses and the state institutions no longer offer security and predictability. But it would make its work much more difficult and bring the risk of it being targeted more easily. Hezbollah, despite what many people say, would take absolutely no benefit from total chaos.
It is for this reason that Hassan Nasrallah has condemned and warned against protests and the blocking of streets. They make Hezbollah’s activities much more dangerous and difficult. The party still wants the security apparatus of the state to maintain control and keep the streets safe; without it having to take full control or direct action visible to all. It is clearly becoming increasingly difficult for it to maintain this order. There is also rising resentment among members of the military that they are forced to clean up and keep order for someone else’s benefit.
Iran, through Hezbollah, has accomplished its objective of ensuring a completely eroded and weakened state that is unable to voice a complaint or disobey its orders. It has put the Lebanese state into servitude. For example, last year a deadly explosion broke Beirut and Lebanon as a whole and there has still been no accountability or a proper investigation. And then there was the killing of an outspoken Hezbollah critic and activist; everyone knows who the main suspect is, but no one cares. Most importantly, no one has been able to challenge or put in jeopardy Hezbollah’s parallel military and communications infrastructure or stop its illegal actions, such as smuggling. It is a sad tragedy that has lasted for too long and in which all political leaders are actors.
Today, the real risk for Hezbollah and Iran is baby milk powder. As people fight in supermarkets for the bare necessities and as hunger and despair spread, the Lebanese will have nothing to lose and they will disrupt Hezbollah’s actions. Not the politicians, not the Lebanese Armed Forces, but the people.
Hezbollah is a successful logistics organization. It can move and smuggle fighters, arms and goods across geographies and with great speed. Logistics is an important part of its global operations, in terms of the flow of goods and also finance. The disruption of these activities is what worries Hezbollah and Iran about the state potentially falling into chaos. Once again, they have the capacity to weather this potential storm, but with added stress and costs.
So I cannot help but wonder what if the Lebanese, in their millions, were to block the border between Syria and Lebanon and disrupt Hezbollah’s smuggling? What if, even for a day, they were able to stop anything from passing through, especially goods subsidized by the Lebanese state? What if the Lebanese gathered at key border points between Lebanon and Syria and disrupted the $4 billion smuggling trade, whose profits are going into the pockets of Hezbollah with total impunity? What if they could stop the country from being robbed while they are starved of both food and freedom?
What if the Lebanese blocked the state institutions — from the presidency to the ministries — that Hezbollah controls? Even for a single day, this would send a message to Hezbollah that the people are no longer tolerating the situation. It would also be a greater test for the Lebanese Armed Forces to decide on which side they stand. It would also be a greater test for all political actors.
If we follow the flow of subsidized goods smuggled across the border, we end up in Syria. This is another unknown that impacts the future of Lebanon, but also where things could change for Hezbollah. Despite not being able to control its entire territory, the Syrian regime has had better control. The Syrian regime also knows that it will not regain full authority without repositioning Hezbollah as a subordinate rather than an equal and rebalancing relations with Iran. This is also something the US, Russia and Israel would welcome as they look for increased stability in the country and region (for different reasons).

Hezbollah, despite what many people say, would take absolutely no benefit from total chaos.

Khaled Abou Zahr

To clarify, it is not a question of breaking the alliance or destroying Hezbollah, but there could be an effort to rebalance the system and make sure Hezbollah stays “in check” in Lebanon. The Syrian regime still has the power to play in Lebanon and has its own agents. The real question is if it is the time to do so.
Regardless, Iran has created a perfect global tool in Lebanon and will not let it go easily. Tehran knows the coming period will require a different approach if it wants to keep it. Iran will, therefore, propose a new formula for Lebanon as international dialogue opens. But this is another story.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.