Israel’s strategic miscalculation on regional normalization

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion last week that a Palestinian state be established on Saudi Arabian land reflects a profound misreading of the regional mood in the Middle East. It also shows that there is a cost to rhetoric, particularly when attempting to win over the publics of neighboring states. This statement — along with other Israeli policies — borders on a strategic miscalculation and risks jeopardizing all efforts to further integrate Israel into the region, including the expected efforts by US President Donald Trump to encourage Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize ties.

During an interview with the Hebrew-language Channel 14, Netanyahu said that “the Saudis can create a Palestinian state in Saudi Arabia; they have a lot of land over there.” Although Israeli officials later characterized the comment as being in jest, it provoked a strong response from Arab leaders and populations alike.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement. “This extremist, occupying mentality does not understand what the Palestinian land means to the brotherly people of Palestine and their emotional, historical and legal connection to this land,” it stated. The UAE also expressed its full solidarity with the Kingdom. Minister of State Khalifa Shaheen Al-Marar affirmed that it would stand with Riyadh against any threat to its security and stability, while stressing that Saudi Arabia’s sovereignty is a “red line” that the UAE will not allow any country to cross or encroach on.

Other Arab states — including Qatar, Egypt, Kuwait and Iraq, as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council and Arab League — also denounced Netanyahu’s remarks as dangerous, irresponsible and disrespectful of international law, UN treaties and the sovereignty of states.

Despite the Netanyahu government’s strong opposition to the two-state solution prior to October 2023, it had bet on further integrating Israel into the region without making major concessions on Palestinian statehood. Israel had previously normalized relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan during Trump’s first presidency.

The Israeli leaders seem to have underestimated the importance that Arab leaders and populations attach to the issue of Palestine. 

Dr. Neil Quilliam

However, the Israeli leaders seem to have underestimated the importance that Arab leaders and populations attach to the issue of Palestine. They came to believe that sensitivities regarding Palestine could be papered over while they pursued shared economic interests with the leaders of regional states.

For a time, there were indications that the door to further normalization stood ajar, when both Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared willing to consider formalizing ties, but with Riyadh setting a guaranteed, binding pathway toward Palestinian statehood as a key condition. However, without the recognition of a Palestinian state, that door now seems to be firmly closed.

While Arab leaders roundly condemned Hamas’ assault against Israel in October 2023, the subsequent military response — which resulted in the deaths of more than 47,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians — has set back the prospect of further normalization for at least another generation. The destruction of Gaza, combined with the hubris of Israeli Cabinet ministers describing Palestinians as “human animals” and calling for their expulsion from the Strip, has politicized an entire new generation across the Arab world.

The destruction of Gaza, combined with the hubris of Israeli Cabinet ministers, has politicized a new generation across the Arab world. 

Dr. Neil Quilliam

Recent events have reaffirmed that Arab states remain steadfast in their commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative and the two-state solution. Saudi Arabia has made it abundantly clear that it remains wedded to the Arab Peace Initiative, which was first agreed upon by the League of Arab States in Beirut in 2002. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said at the Extraordinary Arab and Islamic Summit in Riyadh last November that it remains the only viable option.

Thus, Netanyahu’s remark was not just a misstep but a strategic blunder. The collective response has been robust. After all, his statement came just days after his joint press conference with Donald Trump in the White House, when the US president proposed taking ownership of the Gaza Strip. Trump’s remarks, though largely performative, have been interpreted in Israel as tacit approval for supporting population transfer. By vocalizing support for such an outlandish idea, Netanyahu has further alienated the Arab public. Words matter, rhetoric costs.

Trump has since reiterated his proposal that the US take over the territory –– and that the 2-million-strong Palestinian population be relocated to neighboring countries such as Egypt and Jordan. While administration officials have attempted to qualify his statements, they have played straight into the hands of Israeli extremists, who have long called for population transfer and the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank. Prince Turki Al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s former ambassador to Washington, said Trump’s plan was based on the position of Itamar Ben-Gvir, who he described as “the ultimate ethnic cleanser.” Ben-Gvir recently resigned as national security minister over the Gaza ceasefire.

Empowering this constituency only unites Arab leaders and Arab populations behind Palestinians and their pursuit of statehood. Jordan’s King Abdullah had the full support of the Arab states when he visited Washington this week to address these pressing matters. After his meeting with Trump, King Abdullah affirmed Jordan’s “steadfast” opposition to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and said that the Arab states were planning to announce an alternative plan for the territory. An emergency Arab summit will be held in Egypt on Feb. 27.

By consistently disregarding the priorities of Arab states, Israel has squandered an opportunity to integrate into the region and, in so doing, alienated young people who were once more open to normalization. No longer.

• Dr. Neil Quilliam is Energy Director at SRMG Think.