Israel deploying its ‘Gaza playbook’ in Lebanon

With international attention elsewhere, the Israeli genocide in Gaza continues, albeit at a more sedate pace. Israel has killed more than 700 Palestinians in the Strip since the supposed ceasefire came into effect. Remarkably, given the nature of Israel’s bombing campaigns regionally, its military is still finding the time to strike Gaza.

Yet genocide scholars, legal groups and other agencies are alarmed enough to also examine what Israel is doing and planning in Lebanon. Various aid agencies, such as Oxfam and Medical Aid for Palestinians, have warned that Israel is now also deploying its “Gaza playbook” there.

To be clear, these agencies have not yet stated that Israel is committing genocide in Lebanon. What they are doing is sounding an alarm, as they are obligated to do, because of the seriousness of the situation.

Does this serious charge stack up? Could Israel be committing or on the verge of committing two genocides simultaneously? Is this alarmism or a genuine reflection of reality?

Many Israeli leaders have revealed how they intend to do to parts of Lebanon what Israel did in Gaza

Chris Doyle

For any determination of genocide, the key ingredient is intent. Often, this is tough to prove, as most genocidaires are wise enough not to boast about their “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group,” as the Genocide Convention defines it.

One remarkable element of Israel’s genocide in Gaza is how freely Israeli leaders, politicians and military officials have made genocidal comments. Many of these were read out during South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice in January 2024.

Regarding Lebanon, many Israeli leaders have made similar comments, not least regarding how they intend to do to parts of Lebanon what Israel did in Gaza. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “the southern suburbs (of Beirut) will become like Khan Younis,” which was destroyed in Israel’s war on Gaza. Opposition leader Yair Lapid called for a “sterile zone” along the border. He said it “may be unpleasant to scrape away two or three Lebanese villages,” but that it is necessary. 

Education Minister Yoav Kisch said that Israel aims to establish a Gaza-like “yellow line” in Lebanon. Yoav Gallant, the former defense minister wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, stated: “We need to strike and eliminate everything that’s in Dahieh, Baalbek, Tyre, Sidon, Nabatieh, everywhere.”

As Israeli forces wade further into Lebanon, many Lebanese have legitimate fears of what fate awaits them

Chris Doyle

Have Israeli actions in Lebanon shown intent? So far, Israel has killed more than 1,000 Lebanese, including 121 children. A common error is to consider that genocide requires hundreds of thousands of an ethnic group to be killed.

More than a million people have been displaced. As Israel did in Gaza, it has ordered residents to leave certain areas, focusing on southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut. The area south of the Litani River — about 10 percent of the country — is being emptied. The Israeli defense minister announced last week that Tel Aviv would be seizing this area. This is more akin to ethnic cleansing — a crime Israel is also perpetrating in areas of the West Bank.

In addition, Israel stands accused of using airburst white phosphorus munitions over residential and rural areas of Lebanon. It also did this in 2024.

Israeli leaders argue that it is only targeting Hezbollah, just like they tried to argue they only targeted Hamas in Gaza. This line is swiftly unravelling. Civilian infrastructure has been hit, civilians killed and journalists and medical personnel clearly targeted. Hezbollah, like Hamas, has attacked Israel. Their fighters and military infrastructure are legitimate military targets, but Israel is hitting much more than this. Its targets include electricity networks and bridges.

Oxfam has highlighted how Israeli forces have targeted water and sewage infrastructure in southern Lebanon, a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention. The agency stated that, in the first four days of the war, Israel “damaged at least seven critical water sources, including reservoirs, pipe networks and pumping stations that supplied water to almost 7,000 people in the Bekaa area alone.” In the 2024 war, Israel damaged 45 water networks in Lebanon.

It is probably too early to invoke genocide in terms of Israel’s conduct in Lebanon. But war crimes are being committed, as is ethnic cleansing. As Israeli forces wade further into Lebanon and the fighting intensifies, many Lebanese have legitimate fears of what fate awaits them, intensified by what they have seen happen to Palestinians in Gaza. This just adds to the terror.

What is alarming is that, even in the early weeks of Israel’s onslaught in Gaza at the back end of 2023, there was more international concern about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intentions than there is over Lebanon today. Unlike Iran, Lebanon is not a major exporter of oil and gas that lies in an economically strategic location like the Gulf, so the world focuses on the situation there rather than the Eastern Mediterranean.

Could Israel do to Lebanon what it has done in Gaza? The answer has to be yes. It is the same government, with the same hateful supremacist ideology and the same brutal contempt for Arab lives. Israeli leaders believe, with good reason, that they can act with complete impunity — as the last two and a half years in Gaza have shown us.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech