Chinese mediation is best placed to pacify Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions 

In March, China’s mediation efforts, including a message from President Xi Jinping, eased escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan over cross-border terrorism. As tensions mounted, there was a real danger that they could morph into broader conflict, resulting in wider regional instability. China’s Special Envoy for Afghan Affairs Yue Xiaoyong shuttled between Afghanistan and Pakistan to lay the groundwork for talks, while Chinese embassies in both countries closely coordinated with the two sides. Informal talks were held from April 1-7 in Xinjiang’s capital Urumqi where Islamabad and Kabul were represented by defense and foreign affairs’ officials. 

Following these talks, tensions relatively subsided as both sides agreed to continue the dialogue to address the security challenges by developing a comprehensive framework instead of using force. The key takeaways of the Urumqi process included commitments from both sides to desist from actions that could escalate the situation, acknowledgement that security challenges, especially terrorism, are central to their strained ties. Reportedly, the Taliban showed willingness to give written guarantees that Afghanistan’s soil will not be used for terrorism against other countries.

Though tensions have persisted including recent Pakistani airstrikes in Kunar province following cross-border terrorism by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), they have not escalated to the levels witnessed in February and March. Furthermore, both sides have also avoided harsh statements which has kept hopes alive for future talks. It is important to mention that Pakistan declared open war against the Taliban regime on February 26 for harboring TTP and allowing it to use Afghanistan as a staging ground for militant attacks in Pakistan. 

Prior to Chinese diplomatic intervention, mediation from Qatar, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia in late 2025 produced a one-month ceasefire agreement. Since then, the volatile security situation in the Middle East following the US-Israel war against Iran have occupied the attention of the Middle Eastern states.

China is not just a mediator but a stakeholder in Pakistan-Afghanistan talks.

-Abdul Basit Khan

Respecting China’s mediation, Pakistan paused its airstrikes for the most part of April while making it clear that it will not retaliate if the Taliban ensure that Afghan territory is not used for militancy against Pakistan. The Taliban’s denial of TTP’s presence in Afghanistan and inaction against it has compelled Pakistan to retaliate with force instead of reminding the Taliban regime of fulfilling their counterterrorism obligation under the Doha Agreement 2020. The Pakistani approach to the current volatile situation is very clearly stated: It will not shy away from talks if the Taliban are willing to address genuine security concerns. Otherwise, for each cross-border attack, there will be an immediate retaliatory response. 

Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, militancy has increased precipitously in Pakistan. Despite the Taliban’s repeated denials, successive UN reports and findings of the Global Terrorism Indices have demonstrated with irrefutable evidence of the Taliban’s ideological patronage and logistical assistance to TTP. So much so that according to the Global Terrorism Index 2026, Pakistan is ranked as the most affected country by terrorism. In 2025, according to the index, Pakistan witnessed 1,139 killings and 1,045 terror attacks, the highest since 2013. Pakistan’s threat picture before the Taliban’s return to power sharply contrasts with the current security situation. During that period, militancy was on the decline, all major militant networks in the country had been disrupted and the state successfully restored its writ. While it will be unfair to ignore some counterproductive state policies which enabled the revival of terror networks in the country, such as the peace talks with TTP in 2020-2021, the main impetus for militancy’s revival in Pakistan remains the Taliban’s patronage of TTP and other militant groups. 

Nonetheless, China is uniquely positioned to mediate talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan unlike Qatar, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia for three specific reasons. 

First, China shares direct borders with both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and any spillover of their escalating tensions will negatively impact China and its economic and security interests in the region. So, China is not just a mediator but a stakeholder in these talks. 

Second, China shares Pakistan’s concerns of cross-border militancy keeping in view the presence of the Turkistan Islamic Party’s (TIP) militants in Afghanistan. Ensuring that TIP does not use Afghanistan as a staging ground for militancy against China has been the mainstay of Chinese diplomatic and economic engagements with the Taliban regime. If China keeps a close tab on TIP, it is also aware of TTP’s activities in Afghanistan which makes it difficult for the Taliban regime to deny its culpability in supporting the latter. If the Taliban can control TIP, then it can rein in TTP as well. The Taliban’s selective approach to these groups is dictated by their own strategic and ideological calculus. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen if China will be able to alter the Taliban’s ideological considerations toward TTP. 

Third, Beijing’s close economic and diplomatic engagements with both sides provides it with a unique influence to mediate Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions. China has deep-seated economic, strategic and geopolitical interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hence, peace and stability in the two countries is vital for Beijing. An open-ended conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan will not only be detrimental to the multibillion-dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor but Chinese investments in Afghanistan as well. 

Despite the recent border flare up, things are relatively calm between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Critically, both sides have avoided from engaging in protracted verbal spats, leaving the room open for future talks. Keeping in view the complex nature of security challenges between the two sides, an overnight solution is unlikely. However, a sincere and uninterrupted dialogue can lead to workable formulas to manage and ultimately resolve the security challenges. 

For Pakistan, a ceasefire will constitute a necessary but not sufficient condition for comprehensive peace. Rather, it is seeking a wide-ranging monitoring mechanism to ensure that Afghan territory is not used for cross-border militancy.

The author is a Senior Associate Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. X: @basitresearcher.