Iran needs to come to terms with Gulf neighbors

The US is oscillating between deal or no deal with Iran. Every day we see media reports about differing conditions for the signing of an agreement, or a ceasefire, or a memorandum of understanding. Even if a deal is reached, it will be more of a framework for an agreement. Hence the path to a final accord still lies ahead of us and is still not secure. However, Iran could play it smart; it could hedge its bets and the best way to do that would be to start negotiating with the Arab Gulf states, and Saudi Arabia in particular.
Before sending his latest proposal to Tehran, US President Donald Trump took part in a group call with his country’s allies in the region: the Arab Gulf states, as well as Pakistan, Jordan, and Turkiye. Unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, who sealed a deal with Iran behind the backs of his allies, Trump wanted to have everyone on board before sending an offer to Iran. It is, therefore, in the interests of Tehran also to get those states on its side, especially Saudi Arabia.
Trump is known to be unpredictable. At the last minute he added another factor into the mix, another condition to his “deal” for everyone: He required all states involved in the agreement — in other words those who were on the group call with him — to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. This condition might be just for show. It might also be a ploy to render a deal impossible and allow him to blame its failure on allies in the region. This would help Trump evade, to some extent, domestic criticism should he fail to cut a deal with the Iranians to end the war.
Regardless of the reasons for adding this illogical condition, one thing remains clear: countries in the region have a say in any deal between US and Iran. Based on discussions with Iranians and pro-Iran specialists, the perception of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was that Washington at the time, under Obama, viewed Tehran as a power to be reckoned with. In this respect, the US seemed prepared to recognize Iran’s status as the one and only regional superpower.
This mentality should change. The idea that the US will accept Iranian dominance over the Gulf will lead nowhere and definitely not help Iran. In fact, it would serve only to entice the Arab Gulf nations to push back against Tehran. Iran should realize, therefore, that its best bet is to build good, friendly, and respectful relation with its neighbors.
Since the present regime came to power in 1979, Iran has adopted a belligerent tone toward its neighbors. In other words, Tehran has willfully positioned itself as a threat to its Arab Gulf neighbors. It should understand that this animosity is not to its advantage. It should alter its belligerent approach, starting with a change to the preamble to its constitution about the export of its revolution. This first step should be followed by a frank discussion about security matters. 

If Iran can get the Gulf nations on its side, the US will have less space to renege on a deal.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Iran’s current negotiations with the Americans should also open up channels for talks with its Arab neighbors. This process should take place in good faith; the Iranians have a reputation for negotiating for the sake of negotiation, simply to buy time when they have no intention of making concessions. They bank on the fact that they have plenty of patience while the other parties do not.
This tactic will not work anymore. To enter into constructive negotiations that the Gulf nations will take seriously, Iran must therefore declare from the outset the concessions it is willing to make. The discussions can then focus on how to get there and what Tehran wants in return.
The Iranians should understand that the main issue for Arab states is nonstate actors; there can be no stability in the region as long as Tehran has armed proxies and sleeper cells operating under its control inside other countries. Iran must be willing to make concessions on this issue of nonstate actors, which it describes as its allies. This process should proceed in parallel with its negotiations with the Americans. If Iran can reach an agreement with the Arab Gulf states, and Saudi Arabia in particular, it will have a much stronger position in its dealings with the US.
At the same time, an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or the wider Gulf region, would make it much easier for the US to make a deal with Iran. In fact, any concessions agreed by Iran in talks with Gulf states on the issue of nonstate actors could also be presented as concessions to the US, in return for which Tehran could extract concessions from Washington, such as the lifting of sanctions. In other words, Iran could reap double the benefits.
Iran should also remember that in the same way that Washington reneged on the 2015 nuclear deal when Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, it could ultimately renege on any new deal. The only real guarantee for Iran, therefore, will come from building good relations with its neighbors. If Iran can get the Gulf nations, Saudi Arabia in particular, on its side, the US will have less space to shift the goalposts or renege on a deal, regardless of how much pressure might be applied by Israel.
The question now is whether the regime in Iran will adopt such a pragmatic approach, or remain stuck in a rigid ideological stance in the belief it is the right thing to do and will eventually win the day no matter what.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.