Netanyahu must be tamed for US-Iran deal to progress

One leader must be tamed for the US-Iran deal to progress beyond the foothills of the shaky 60-day ceasefire. One leader needs to suffer from the sort of political bullying that he himself has specialized in for decades. This is, of course, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister.

And if he is the obstacle, the only leader who can do the bullying is President Donald Trump. Already, the last few weeks have seen unprecedented levels of criticism directed at the Israeli leadership from Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and other leading US officials. At last week’s G7 Summit, Trump described the Israeli attacks on Lebanon as “vicious” and “too much.”

Vance was clear: “What the president has grown frustrated with, at times, is that we seem to be right on the cusp of a major breakthrough in the agreement and then all of a sudden there’s a major explosion that goes off in a civilian population center in Beirut, and a lot of people who have nothing to do with Hezbollah lose their lives.”

It is some transformation in US talking points. Israel has pummeled Lebanese civilian targets for months. Nothing was said. Palestinians in Gaza might wonder how bad the genocide they are enduring has to get for such sentiments to be voiced in the White House. Israel has hit thousands of Palestinian buildings that had nothing to do with Hamas.

Israel has so much to lose if the relationship with Washington disintegrates, not least as it is also losing so many other allies

Chris Doyle

But Israel’s leaders are not backing off Lebanon. Defense Minister Israel Katz said: “There has never been and there is currently no restriction on Israeli soldiers in Lebanon from acting to eliminate threats.” The word “threats” is a very permissive, catch-all term that commanders can interpret broadly.

Why, then, is Netanyahu being so obstinate? Israel has so much to lose if the relationship with Washington disintegrates, not least as it is also losing so many other allies. It requires weaponry, not least to replace all the antimissile system rounds defending the country from Iranian missile and drone barrages.

For Netanyahu, the war has been even more of a disaster than for Trump. A year ago, Netanyahu could credibly boast that Israel had dealt some stunning blows to Iranian power in the Middle East. The 12-day war on Iran had seemingly exposed Iran’s vulnerability. Its nuclear installations had been crippled. Hezbollah and Hamas had both been degraded significantly. But his arrogance was his undoing.

This war has reinforced the Iranian leadership, not weakened it. Iran barely needs a nuclear deterrent anymore as its control of the Strait of Hormuz and, conceivably, the Bab Al-Mandab Strait is deterrent enough, at least to the US if not Israel.

The excursion on Iran that Netanyahu seduced Trump into embarking on may cost him his job and arguably his personal liberty, owing to his corruption trial. Instead of a US-Iran deal negotiated from a position of American strength, Iran can dictate the terms as it holds the global economy in its grip courtesy of the Strait of Hormuz closure.

The Iranian leadership has made the survival of Hezbollah integral to its negotiating position. The Trump administration has conceded this but Netanyahu has not. Nominal ceasefire deals have been announced but never respected.

Netanyahu’s greater political dilemma is that, at home, the near-universal consensus is that the Iran war failed

Chris Doyle

But Netanyahu has a point about the Iran deal, even if he is to blame for the transformation in Tehran’s fortunes. Firstly, he has only ever considered dealing with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas with total force. He has no political strategy for engaging with his foes. This puts him at odds with Trump, who went to war to achieve certain political goals, even if he failed.

Secondly, the Iran deal is weak as it stands. Many of the clauses are vague and open to interpretation. The Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon is not yet backed up by the necessary verification processes. Regional states, not just Israel, will be nervous at Iran’s retention of its significant ballistic missile and drone arsenals.

Netanyahu’s greater political dilemma is that, at home, the near-universal consensus is that the Iran war failed. In a poll last week, more than 92 percent of Israelis said they believe Iran has won the war and nearly the same number see Israel’s objectives as unachieved.

As polls go, that is wildly comprehensive. This is political wipeout territory just weeks or months away from the only poll that Netanyahu cares about: the Israeli elections, which must take place by the end of October.

So, what incentive has Netanyahu to back off Lebanon, to stop bombing, let alone withdraw from the territory it is occupying? To do so would invite devastating critiques from his electoral enemies.

Only Trump can change the equation. It will require a mix of threats — not least on US weapons to Israel — and incentives. The alarming bribe that Netanyahu could snatch from the American leader is a free hand in Palestine, to finish the Gaza genocide and ethnic cleansing, advance the doomsday settlement of E1 east of Jerusalem that will divide the West Bank, and even change the status quo on Al-Aqsa. As often is the case, the Palestinians may bear the brunt of US-Israeli failures on other fronts.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech