Has the UK become ungovernable?

The UK and its ruling Labour Party ought to have thought twice before rushing to push an unpopular prime minister to resign. Keir Starmer’s large parliamentary majority and his government’s early green shoots of progress did not protect a PM who was supposed to lead until 2029, as apparently he was becoming unpopular and his government lacked direction.

Britain is not unique, as charisma is increasingly preferred to competence and appeals to grassroots party supporters are seemingly more important than capabilities in office. This appears to be the fate of state and society post-Brexit, compounded by the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the costly Ukraine war. And 14 years of Conservative blunders and austerity have now left the UK ungovernable, it seems.

To be fair to Starmer, things were looking up. His government’s immigration curbs have yielded a falling number of arrivals. The waiting lists in the National Health Service have been getting shorter. Even the economy has been showing early positive signs despite the US-Iran war and the trade and energy disruptions it caused.

Starmer made some disastrous decisions and U-turns, but nothing significant enough to warrant ousting him

Mohamed Chebaro

On the international stage, the UK’s posture has remained steadfast in its search for mature and responsible policies on Ukraine and the wars in the Middle East that are compliant with international law. That is despite this White House’s policies, many of which have targeted traditional US allies such as London. Starmer has also overseen a rapprochement with the EU in terms of defense, security and the economy.

Starmer’s record in office was overall less than perfect, with some disastrous decisions and U-turns, but nothing significant enough to warrant ousting him. Even the saga concerning his choice of Peter Mandelson, who was badly tarnished by the Epstein files, as US ambassador and his party’s performance at last month’s local elections did not warrant his ousting. Nor did the fear that many in the Labour Party have been sensing as a result of the rise of Reform UK, led by the anti-immigrant, anti-EU, pro-Trump and pro-Putin Nigel Farage.

Yes, maybe Starmer failed in terms of charisma, popularity and political intrigues. And above all, he failed to inspire and give hope to the electorate. But one wonders if the UK is governable today, as the traditional two-party system is giving way to a five-party system, with the public ever more impassioned and impatient, wanting a small state — yet a generous one — amid a shrinking national purse.

Burnham must come up with a clear program of reform and a government that can satisfy the electorate

Mohamed Chebaro

Replacing Starmer could be an easy task. Andy Burnham — the former mayor of Manchester dubbed the “King of the North” — could add presentation, inspiration and hope. But that will not necessarily translate into Labour unity, governance, growth or stability in a highly fractured country 10 years on from the fateful Brexit vote.

Against such a backdrop, Burnham might not be the solution, unless he comes with a clear program of reform and a government that can satisfy the electorate.

Burnham was born in Liverpool, where his father worked as a telephone engineer and his mother as a receptionist. He graduated from the University of Cambridge and ⁠took the familiar path to political prominence, first as a researcher and then adviser in parliament. He first served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, before becoming culture secretary and health secretary under Gordon Brown. He previously ran to become leader of the Labour Party in both 2010 and 2015 but failed both times.

Burnham’s potential leadership will be put to the test early on, as the country and the markets closely watch his posture concerning three key issues. One is his level of commitment to fiscal discipline and balancing the books. Then it will be whether he can find the necessary spending increases for defense and trim the welfare bill within the Labour Party’s fiscal rules.

His popularity while mayor of Manchester rested on his success in driving collaboration between the public and private sectors. The affairs of the central state are different and his biggest test may well be whether he again relies on the private sector or works to expand the state. In addition, his choice of chancellor will be telling and whether the markets will respond positively to his long-held belief that the nation needs to roll back 40 years of neoliberalism.

The UK ​was ‌once seen ⁠as ​a ⁠pillar of political and economic stability, home to leaders such as Margaret Thatcher and Blair, whose combined 21 years in power helped reshape modern Britain.

Today, the country is gripped by the challenges posed by the populist far right, such as Reform and its nostalgic vision of Britain. Burnham is a leader who could potentially stand up to the populists, but he is also someone looking to correct the years of Thatcherism.

The adversities facing the UK are colossal and its new leadership must have the ability to deal with the perennial problems of growing the economy while ensuring its compassion through funding the welfare state. The country is also seeking to position itself to capitalize on the technological possibilities associated with artificial intelligence amid a shifting world order and geostrategic landscape, in which the relationships between allies and foes are in constant flux.

Burnham, who is seeking to become Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade following his return to Parliament this week, must prove that he can occupy center stage, win over restless voters and overcome the economic constraints that hamstrung his predecessors.

His pitch is that only he has the political charisma and the vision in Labour to connect with voters and defeat Reform, which has led in every poll for more than a year. But will that be enough?

A lot is being written about the UK and its failures, about why, increasingly, nothing seems to work, and who and how to fix it. But a small state and huge welfare spending are becoming unsustainable regardless of who occupies 10 Downing Street. Above all, whoever succeeds Starmer must find out if there is still a place for grown-up government.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.