Iran’s role in Syria after the Arab summit

NOT surprisingly, Iran was irked by decisions taken by the Arab League summit, which was held in Doha a week ago. The decisions to endorse military aid for rebels and to hand the vacant seat to the Syrian opposition are seen as a game changer by many Iranians as well as Syrians.
Explicit in statements uttered by Iranian leaders is the deep concern of Tehran over the recent developments. Iran described the decision to allow the opposition leader to fill Syria’s vacant seat as a “dangerous behavior.”
It is not as if Iran is unaware of its biased position. In fact, after two years of ongoing crackdown on Syrians by Assad’s regime, the Iranian leadership has never demonstrated any sign of sympathy for the Syrian civilian causalities. On the contrary, Tehran has continued to be a staunch supporter of the embattled President Assad. Of course there are strategic considerations for supporting the regime. Iran views Assad and his regime as a key pillar of Iran’s anti-Israel, anti-America axis.
The Arab summit’s decisions underscore one fact: The Syrian crisis has become the epicenter of regional rivalry and a playground for competing regional actors including Iran of course. Now it appears that many countries have stepped up their influence by providing arms and weapons for both sides of the conflict in Syria.
Interestingly, Tehran knows that Assad’s chances in surviving the revolution are narrowing down to the point of disappearing. For this reason, Iran appears to be preparing for a Middle East devoid of Assad and his regime. But Iranian support has been crucial for Assad. In fact, without Iran’s strong strategic and financial support, Assad would have been ejected a while ago. It remains to be seen if Iran has a Plan B to deal with a post-Assad Syria.
That said, the Arab League has sent a clear message that change in Syria will be a matter of when and not if.
Many Arab countries reached the conclusion that the status quo is no longer viable and that the Arab countries should do something to make the difference in the crisis. To counter the huge Iranian support for Assad and his regime, the Arabs recognized the anti-Assad coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrians. The picture of the Syrian opposition chief Moaz Al-Khatib sitting in Syria’s seat at the summit symbolized a new Arab determination to pave the ground for the final assault on whatever legitimacy left for Assad.
Some media outlets talk about new weapons that have reached the Syrian opposition. For instance, the New York Times reported a week ago that some Arab countries have stepped up their cargo flights bringing weaponry to both Jordan and Turkey in order to smuggle them into Syria. This is supposed to continue to create a new balance of power within Syria that can place a huge price tag on Assad.
Certainly, Iran will not sit by idly. It has stepped up military aid to the Syrian regime. According to a new report released in mid-March by Reuters, Iran’s moves “suggests the Syrian war is entering a new phase in which Iran may be trying to end the battlefield stalemate by redoubling its commitment to Assad.” Mainly, Iran uses the Iraqi airspace to ship its military equipments to Assad’s troops. The inventory of Iran’s shipment of arms to Syria suggests that Iran may plan for a last stand. If the regime falls in the coming weeks, Iran will realize that it has bet on the wrong horse!
The recent developments came as a function of the Arab’s determination to defeat Tehran in Syria. The summit’s decision that gave the Syrians all means of self-defense should be understood within the context of Arabs-Iran rivalry. Were it not for Iran, the Arabs may have approached the whole crisis in Syria differently.
The Arab summit’s decisions will be felt in months to come. Now, the rebels feel emboldened by a concrete support of the Arabs. Not only will they use the weapon to defeat Assad’s forces, but they will also take the war on Assad to new levels. I expect that even Iranian interests in Syria — if now somewhere else — will be targeted. On the whole, the summer of 2013 surely will be extremely hot for all in the region.

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