Uncertainties lie ahead after Mursi’s ouster
From the get-go, many experts posed an important question: Will conservatives succeed in running the state without provoking the other components? We knew that the political future of Muslim Brotherhood hinged on its ability and willingness to avoid exclusivity. But for that to happen, the movement needed to shun its commitment to its ideology and master the art of governance.
During the year of his rule, Mursi failed miserably in getting other forces on board. Worse, he misinterpreted the ballot result and saw in his election a mandate to run the country as he deemed fit. Drafting the constitution after his election in an arbitrary fashion only frightened a large number of Egyptians, a fact that became manifested when around 30 million Egyptians took to the streets calling on the president to quit.
The core issue in Egypt has been the dispute over the direction of the Egyptian society. In other words, whether to have an Islamic state or just a civil state has been the bone of contention between the Muslim Brotherhood and the rest of the society. Therefore, at the heart of the struggle was the constitution itself, which was written by an unrepresentative body.
Implicit in Mursi’s decision to go on with the constitution when non-orthodox forces withdrew from the assembly showed Mursi’s arbitrary approach. The non-orthodox forces had a problem with three issues: The role of the Shariah as the basis of law; freedom of speech and worship; and protection of women’s rights. Mursi’s autocratic rule made him push through changes in a unilateral fashion. This heavy-handed approach only united the opposition and created the dynamics for Mursi’s fall.
What happened in Egypt recently proved one thing: A unilateral approach by a ruling president will only backfire. The new interim leadership in Egypt will find itself in a similar situation if it fails to avoid arbitrary actions. By cracking down on traditionalists, the military seems unable to learn the lesson.
Now, it is not as if Egypt is calm. In fact, no one can predict what is going to take place in weeks to come, let alone months. The Muslim Brotherhood is at a crossroads. After being ousted in this revolutionary way, the question is whether the orthodox in Egypt will continue viewing politics as the ideal venue for power and legitimacy. For many of Mursi’s supporters, their electoral victory was stolen by the military.
And yet, this episode is likely to have some impact on other radical parties across the region. It may lead to genuine review of their tactics in politics. As of now, conservatives are expected not to push their agenda too hard. In fact, this can be a positive development and pretty much favored political consequence. And also many members of the hard-line parties may question the utility of democracy. If anything, what took place in Egypt can boost the status of hard-liners in the Muslim Brotherhood organizations with regard to the very questions linked to democracy itself.
On a deeper level, I argue that the way the new interim leadership in Egypt is dealing with the conservatives will define the degree of moderation on the part of the movement. The main challenge for the new interim leadership is how to convince the conservatives to take part in the new interim political setup and also how to give the military takeover a legitimacy.
Given the clear division among Egyptians and indeed the Arabs between Mursi’s supporters and those against Mursi, it remains to be seen if Egyptians can rise from this ash and move beyond this nasty episode. Clinging on to stiff position can hardly help a peaceful and smooth transition. It cannot be predicted with any degree of confidence what is going to happen next month for instance.
For this reason, the Egyptian scene is vague and uncertainties will dominate the scene for some time to come.
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