Iran in a do-or-die situation over nukes

Over the last week, Iran’s newly elected President Hassan Rowhani was placed at the center of media frenzy with lots of interviews, articles about the new “heroic flexibility”, and the hope of changing course. It is as if everyone seeks one simple assurance from Rowhani: Iran will give up its nuclear ambitions once and for all.
Not long ago, Iran’s leadership was saddled with internal differences, fractured elite, international skepticism, and sanctions. A close scrutiny of Iran politics reveals a degree of backstabbing and bickering among the ruling elite who is supposed to preserve the identity of the revolution. This bleak and grim picture could not be more obvious than during and after the controversial presidential elections of 2009.
Back then, many observers pointed out to a serious lack of unity among the Iranian leadership. On the face of it, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei is the undisputed leader. And yet, the domestic situation is too complex to be seen as a one-man show. The Revolutionary Guard is yet another important player with particular vested interest in the nuclear program. If this were to continue, his ability to pursue a non-confrontational foreign policy would be undercut. But Iran suffers greatly from the imposed sanctions and from the ongoing conflict of attrition in Syria. Thus far, sanctions have taken a heavy toll. The Syrian conflict and Tehran’s commitment to support the embattled dictator of Damascus further drained Iran’s already diminishing resources. This time around, Iran may not afford another confrontation with the West over the nuclear program particularly with the Israeli leadership pounding the drums of war. Against this backdrop, the Iranian leadership is united around Rowhani to pursue a different path lest the current one would only secure the failure of the state and the revolution altogether. On the flip side, people around the world still remember the outgoing President Ahmadinejad’s bombastic statements and defiance. Compared to his predecessor, Rowhani is most likely to gain international sympathy. His United Nations speech struck a chord when he stressed out the need for a deal on the nuclear program. It seems that Rowhani perfectly understands that the relationship with the West boils down to one key issue: The nuclear program. To his credit, he succeeded in setting himself apart from his predecessor.
Interestingly enough, Iran needs a pragmatist rather than a moderate at the helm of politics to end the isolation of his country. Fareed Zakaria questioned whether Rowhani “has the authority to act on behalf of his government.” Zakaria argues that the Revolutionary Guard plays a prominent role in shaping Iran’s foreign policy. Not only is the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard hawkish but also it makes a huge profit from sanctions. While Zakaria has all the right to be skeptical of the ability of Rowhani in making a difference, the Iranian economy is getting crippled thanks to the sanctions regime. The leaders of the Revolutionary Guard cannot win the internal argument after Khamenei had reached the realization that the Iranian revolution itself is having hard time surviving the sanctions.
In spite of this new realization, Rowhani is most likely to face serious difficulties if he is really authorized to cut a deal with the West. The Iranian leadership needs to understand that nothing short of a deal would create an environment that would be conducive for lifting sanctions. It will not be a simple decision for Obama to make. On the contrary, the Congress is suspicious of Iran’s intention. Many Congressmen are unmoved by the most Iranian overtures. In a letter to President Obama, Senators Lindsey Graham and Robert Menendez told the president that Iran would use negotiations as a tactic to buy time to gain the nuclear capacity. Seen in this way, the Congress may not lift sanctions in part because of Israeli skepticism. Israel has been trying to throw cold water on any deal.
Although the “heroic flexibility” that Khamenei advocates can empower Rowhani to be more flexible on the nuclear negotiations, this pragmatism — though needed — is a drop in the bucket given the genuine fear that Iran may be opting for a strategic deception. Apart from talking about the need for reaching a deal with the West, the Iranians are yet to offer concrete measures to allay the West’s fears.

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