Myanmar crisis pushing the Rohingya toward starvation

Myanmar’s economy is falling apart at a pace that even seasoned observers did not expect. The collapse is no longer gradual. It is a freefall driven by currency implosion, war economy dynamics, fractured supply chains and the junta’s inability to administer even the basics of statehood. For the Rohingya trapped in Rakhine State, this unfolding collapse is not an abstract macroeconomic story. It is a direct threat to their survival.

New market analysis reports show sharp rises in food prices across Myanmar, chronic shortages of staples in conflict areas and a breakdown in transport routes into northern Rakhine. These developments are converging into the makings of a humanitarian disaster. The Rohingya, already weakened by years of displacement, forced labor, restricted movement and systemic discrimination, will feel the impact first and most severely. Yet the international community and the region remain dangerously distracted.

The roots of Myanmar’s economic collapse are simple. The military cannot govern and cannot win its war against the resistance. The kyat has plunged to record lows relative to the dollar, foreign currency reserves are almost exhausted and the informal economy has overtaken the formal one. Trade routes through Yangon and Mandalay have fractured due to taxation, extortion and insecurity. The junta’s attempt to print money to cover its widening fiscal hole has only fueled inflation. The state’s ability to purchase imports, including food and fuel, has disintegrated.

Informal taxes imposed by both sides have pushed up prices and discouraged the movement of goods

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

In Rakhine State, the situation is even worse. Local markets rely on goods transported from central Myanmar and from cross-border trade with Bangladesh and India. Both these arteries are now constricted. Fighting between the military and the Arakan Army has severed road links, cut river traffic and forced traders to avoid major transit routes. Informal taxes imposed by both sides have pushed up prices and discouraged the movement of goods. Traders that once traveled daily between Sittwe, Maungdaw and Buthidaung now do so rarely or not at all. The cumulative effect is scarcity.

For the Rohingya, this scarcity is deadly. Unlike other communities in Rakhine, they cannot move freely to seek alternative markets or livelihoods. They depend almost entirely on local food supply chains, which are growing thinner by the week. Their situation was precarious even in relatively stable years. Now, with the economy in freefall and the conflict intensifying again in northern Rakhine, they face a perfect storm of hunger, disease and further displacement.

Doctors and aid workers inside Rakhine describe growing malnutrition among children and pregnant women. Access to medical care has deteriorated sharply due to fighting and movement restrictions. Increasing numbers of families are reportedly selling whatever assets they still possess to buy basic food. Some have attempted to flee by boat to Bangladesh despite Dhaka’s strict border closures. Those who succeed are arriving in the camps with clear signs of hunger and physical stress.

Bangladesh is already overwhelmed. The existing Rohingya camps are overcrowded and underfunded. International support has declined dramatically due to global donor fatigue. Food rations have been cut repeatedly. Dhaka does not want another influx and is signaling clearly that its capacity is exhausted. But the laws of physics apply. If people are starving inside Myanmar, they will attempt to escape, no matter the risk or the barriers.

The moral and strategic implications of this moment are profound. A new wave of Rohingya displacement would destabilize the already fragile political environment in Bangladesh. It would also harden attitudes within Dhaka against repatriation, as officials fear being trapped with an ever-growing population that Myanmar refuses to take back. This would embolden extremist elements inside Myanmar that continue to pursue policies of demographic erasure. And it would deepen humanitarian dependency for another generation.

Pressure must be applied on the junta and the Arakan Army to guarantee humanitarian corridors into northern Rakhine

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Regional governments should take no comfort from the fact that the collapse is happening slowly enough to be ignored in daily headlines. The failure to act now will guarantee a far greater crisis later. The combination of economic implosion, military fragmentation and ethnic insurgencies means that Myanmar is losing the ability to feed, administer or even monitor large sections of its territory. This is not a temporary shock. It is the unravelling of a state.

What can and must be done? First, Bangladesh, India, Thailand and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations should urgently convene a humanitarian coordination mechanism focused specifically on food security in Rakhine. Waiting for the UN to act will be futile given the political deadlock in the Security Council. The region must treat this as an immediate security risk, not a distant humanitarian issue.

Second, pressure must be applied on the junta and the Arakan Army to guarantee humanitarian corridors into northern Rakhine. Both sides have an interest in maintaining basic civilian stability. Neither wants a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe that provokes international intervention. The region can use that leverage.

Third, international donors should restore and ring-fence funding for Rohingya support in both Myanmar and Bangladesh. The cuts made to the World Food Programme’s operations have already had devastating effects. Without restored assistance, the line between severe food insecurity and famine is thin and getting thinner.

Finally, there must be a political component. Any long-term solution requires engagement not only with the state apparatus in Naypyitaw but with the actors that now control much of Myanmar’s territory. This includes the Arakan Army, which has gained ground across northern Rakhine and which will play a decisive role in any future settlement affecting the Rohingya. Ignoring these realities while the economy disintegrates will only prolong the suffering.

Myanmar’s collapse is accelerating and the window to prevent mass starvation is closing. The Rohingya have endured genocide, displacement and discrimination for decades. If the world stands by as economic failure tips them into hunger and death, it will be yet another moral failure and another blow to regional stability. The warning signs are visible. The question is whether anyone will act before it is too late.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim