Turkish-Saudi transport corridor gains momentum

When it comes to developments in the Middle East, we often hear the phrase “geography is destiny.” This popular phrase, which is most commonly attributed to Ibn Khaldun, means that geography influences both the rise and decline of a state and its society’s development trajectory. For the Middle East, this phrase is often used with negative connotations.

Geography cannot change; therefore, it is certain that countries in the Middle East will remain central to one another’s strategic calculations. However, geography can be transformed from a source of competition into a foundation for cooperation if there is a strong will behind it.

Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, building on the positive momentum achieved in their relations over the last few years, are seeking to convert geography into trust and infrastructure into a source of cooperation. They are seeking to make connectivity strategy the central pillar of their evolving relationship.

Turkiye and Saudi Arabia on Tuesday signed two major memorandums of understanding to cooperate in the railway and logistics sectors, marking a historic step toward transforming regional connectivity. These agreements aim to establish a transport corridor stretching from the Gulf to Europe.

The initial phase of this corridor seeks to connect Turkiye to Jordan through Syria and then southward to Riyadh. Long-term plans envision it stretching to Oman. One of the region’s most significant pathways for regional cooperation is quietly taking shape and two middle powers — Turkiye and Saudi Arabia — want to play a major role. For them, this initiative not only represents an economic vision but also a strategic shift that could reshape regional power dynamics.

Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are seeking to make connectivity strategy the central pillar of their evolving relationship

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkish-Saudi cooperation is growing at an accelerating pace and so-called corridor diplomacy is emerging as a strategic pillar in their cooperation. Several factors are driving this.

First is political alignment, which is gradually evolving into deeper security coordination between Ankara and Riyadh.

Second is the new Syria factor. The collapse of the Assad regime created a historic opportunity for Ankara and Riyadh to align politically with the new administration in Damascus and place Syria at the center of their connectivity projects. Indeed, Syria and Jordan constitute the geographical core of this initiative.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz resulting from the ongoing US-Israeli confrontation with Iran has accelerated this corridor diplomacy. In the long term, the revival of the Hijaz Railway is increasingly viewed as a potential alternative to dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu this week revealed that the transport corridor could be completed within the next three years and may eventually extend into Europe. He added that Saudi Arabia has already extended its rail network to the Jordanian border, while Turkiye has expanded its railway system to the frontier with Syria. More importantly, Iraq could also become part of the project.

Turkish-Saudi diplomacy therefore highlights the region’s growing infrastructural pluralism. Neither Ankara nor Riyadh want to exclude any regional actor that seeks stability.

The tensions currently affecting Middle Eastern states are paradoxically transforming the region into a strategic pivot for economic integration. Both Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are seeking stability rather than retaliation. Their regional diplomacy reveals a strategy centered on avoiding military entanglements. This approach is evident in their positions during the US-Israeli confrontation with Iran. They are playing a long game, constructing a corridor ecosystem that responds to the region’s new realities. As global supply chains face increasing risks, the Middle East sits at the crossroads of an emerging order.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes a deliberate act of connectivity pressure on several states from the Gulf to Europe. So, what does Turkish-Saudi diplomacy aim to achieve and what can it potentially offer?

They are playing a long game, constructing a corridor ecosystem that responds to the region’s new realities

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

First, it seeks to reduce overdependence on vulnerable routes, hedge against geopolitical risks, enhance supply chain resilience and strengthen their geopolitical positioning. Second, it promotes pragmatic convergence through shared interests and coordinated responses to regional crises. Third, it offers a potentially effective path toward regional integration through mutual benefit and regional ownership.

The revival of the Turkiye-Saudi Arabia transport corridor is also strategically important for Europe because it would diversify economic corridors beyond vulnerable maritime chokepoints. Europe has already experienced major disruptions resulting from the war in Ukraine and instability affecting critical maritime corridors. European states have long sought alternative routes connecting Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Within this context, the revival of the Turkish-Saudi railway project creates a strategic opportunity for Europe.

However, it will also become a test case for connectivity diplomacy in the Middle East. Despite its promise, it carries significant risks. One of the greatest challenges is that the project runs through a fragile regional environment where instability could easily derail progress.

Both Ankara and Riyadh are closely monitoring developments in Syria, Jordan and Iraq, while sharing a common position on regional stability, which is closely linked to their style of diplomacy. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a key statement this week, emphasizing that the security of Syria and Lebanon is inseparable from the security and stability of the wider region.

Also this week, Saudi Arabia lifted its roughly five-year ban on imports from Lebanon as a show of support for Beirut. Alongside Turkiye, the Kingdom is playing a central role in supporting stability and reconstruction efforts in both Syria and Lebanon, where they see Israel and Iranian proxies as the main destabilizing forces that they need to contain.

Turkish-Saudi diplomatic relations should not be understood as bringing about an imminent infrastructure project, but it has a huge political message in showing that regional actors have the capacity to promote their own connectivity corridors.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz