What remains of Tehran’s empire?

Today, Iran clings to one thing: preserving some of its geopolitical gains in the Arab region. Will it succeed in negotiations after failing in war? It seeks to control Iraq and preserve Hezbollah in Lebanon, having lost Syria and being on the verge of losing the Houthis in Yemen. It hopes that negotiations with the US administration will help preserve its extensive realm as much as possible.

No state has succeeded in imposing such widespread hegemony in the Arab region, using both hard and soft power, as Iran did over three decades until the Oct. 7, 2023, attack occurred.

Nasserism’s intellectual and military reach swept through various parts of the region, but it failed to plant proxies, establish governments and control vast geopolitical areas. Cairo’s influence over Syria, in the name of unity, lasted only three years before it was ousted in the first coup. Iranian influence, however, has been extensive, long-lasting and backed by military force, unparalleled in the region since the decline of the British Empire’s presence.

Tehran advanced far in its expansion, reaching the borders of Turkiye and the waters of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea.

In the current negotiations, it seeks to preserve most of the expansion it achieved. Recent events have revealed the costly price of the Oct. 7 operation. By losing the Assad regime in Syria, it no longer has a corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its strategic balance with Turkiye has weakened and it has lost two fronts overlooking Israel: southern Lebanon and western Syria.

Hormuz was not the surprise, but rather Iran’s widespread attacks on the Gulf and taking its states hostage

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Tehran’s empire was built on propaganda and weapons and it nurtured a generation of Arabs, some of whom believed in the revolution and its image of resistance against the West and Zionism. But, as Al-Mutanabbi said: “The sword conveys truer tidings than books.” And just as happened to Nasserist expansion, which extended north to Syria, south to Yemen, east to Kuwait and west to Libya, Israeli power has crippled its Iranian rival and continues to push it back regionally.

This expansion was always going to lead to a clash with Israel, which the events of Oct. 7 accelerated, putting all proposals to the test. Iran was not a paper tiger but a heavily armed fortress ruled by the Revolutionary Guards from behind the ayatollahs. However, it was not a military match for Israel and its ally America. Its military resilience was greater than expected. Offensively, thousands of missile and drone attacks on its enemy Israel did not achieve significant goals.

Its strategists succeeded in compensating for what they failed to achieve in confronting the attacks by adopting an equally impactful plan. Closing the Strait of Hormuz became a high-pressure card. Hormuz was not the surprise, but rather Iran’s widespread attacks on the Gulf and taking its states hostage. These states are skillfully avoiding becoming a battlefield and are accepting some losses, realizing that matters are out of their control. It is better for Saudi Arabia and its allies to leave the battle to be settled by the three powers and, whatever the outcome, this remains preferable to engaging in direct combat.

From the course of the war and its aftermath, we sense that Tehran does not wish to resume fighting

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Hezbollah, which once threatened the region, is now fighting for survival. Israel, which was not satisfied with President Donald Trump’s truce and the negotiation process, opened the southern Lebanon front, seized all Hezbollah strongholds, crossed the Litani River and now threatens Tyre, perhaps even intending to march to Beirut.

More than 100 days have passed since the start of the war and two months since the truce and Iran has exhausted most of its options. Trump’s blockade on Tehran’s ports has deprived it of its highest daily revenue in four decades.

From the course of the war and its aftermath, we sense that Tehran does not wish to resume fighting. Even the 10 missiles it launched at northern Israel for a few hours this week were a propaganda announcement and came to reinforce this hypothesis.

The regime weaves around itself an image of an invincible regional power, hoping to achieve through negotiations what it failed to achieve through military force.

Its endurance of losses, its targeting of less-defended areas and its recent attack on Israel are all theatrical displays. What worries everyone is that the US administration might fall into Iran’s trap and grant it more than $24 billion in the negotiations and lift the blockade, in addition to overlooking its ballistic missile system and regional proxies, which would mean that future confrontations with Iran would be almost certain.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @aalrashed