A year many in the Middle East will want to forget 

Just how will 2025 be remembered not least in the Middle East? Many will be craving amnesia. 

For Palestinians, another year of genocide and apartheid. Two ceasefires did not bear meaningful fruit. The drop in fatalities in Gaza after the Oct. 10 ceasefire plan, and the release of hostages and detainees were welcome. Yet the pitiful amount of aid Israel lets in still highlights the intention of those who pursued this genocide. 

The Israeli penchant for creating facts on the ground, making the temporary permanent, has had another outing in Gaza. Israel has split the enclave and taken over half of it. How long before settlements appear there? 

With the attention on Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his settler chums launched a huge land seizure program in the West Bank, with record numbers of new settlements, and a surge in settler violence. 

Iran’s situation has deteriorated noticeably. Having lost Assad in Syria, it has seen both Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis, weakened. Iran cannot assist its allies to the extent that it used to. Yet they remain a threat to Israel, as the May Houthi ballistic missile strike that hit Tel Aviv airport showed. Can Israel’s anti-ballistic systems manage to shield it from increasingly advanced weaponry in the future? 

If hope was on the menu, it was in Syria 

Chris Doyle

But the war everyone had been speculating about at length for years, even decades, did come to pass. The Iran-Israel indirect cold war became a direct full-on hot one. A dozen days of Israeli bombing also included the US unloading its most potent non-nuclear ordnance on Iranian nuclear sites. Experts are divided as to whether this has intimidated Tehran. 

Will the Iranian regime double down on a nuclear option or retreat, wary of further bombardment? The experts have always flitted between those who overestimate the regime’s fragility and flexibility, and those who underestimate its strength and rigidity.  

Even UN sanctions were reimposed. Has this led to a regional powershift? To an extent. But the alliances are now more fluid, the interests less clearcut. 

Israel remains a massive threat to Lebanon. What is clear is that like it or not Hezbollah will not disarm voluntarily. Its leadership will insist on a major political victory before even contemplating doing so, and this must include a full Israeli withdrawal. The situation is stuck. It may not be for long. 

Sudan has become the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. A war long ignored outside the region grabbed the headlines globally with horrific scenes in western Sudan. The attention did not last. The challenge for those who care will be how to strengthen international resolve to bring this to a peaceful and permanent conclusion. 

If hope was on the menu, it was in Syria. A year with no Assad at the helm was something to celebrate as happened on the anniversary. But nobody should be under any illusions as to the dangers lurking ahead. Ahmed Al-Sharaa has proved more than a capable diplomat. 

Perhaps the most startling scene, one that 12 months ago would have appeared inconceivable to all, was US President Donald Trump and Al-Sharaa sharing laughs in the Oval Office.

Global public opinion is outraged 

Chris Doyle

All this came into sharp focus this December with the killing of American soldiers in Syria. Who knows who orchestrated this attack but the result is that the US is once again engaged in major bombings of Daesh in central Syria. Will this be a one-off or a trend? 

The Trump administration has certainly shaken up the scene. Netanyahu cannot have it all his own way. Trump ordered Israeli aircraft to stop bombing Iran. He compelled Netanyahu to issue a telephone apology to the emir of Qatar for having bombed Doha. Trump also opened direct talks with long-term US foes Hamas and Iran. Against the advice of many in his team, the US leader also announced he would lift sanctions against Syria. 

European diplomatic action remains largely hesitant, more focused on Russia-Ukraine than on the Middle East. One step forward was the UK-French recognition of Palestine, something that if done a decade ago might have made a difference. Once again — too little, too late. What is the point of recognizing a state if you are not prepared to stop it being bombed, starved, and dismantled through force? 

Those states recognizing Palestine did so largely not because it was the right thing to do but because global public opinion is outraged. The chasm between the elite leaderships and the voting public is widening. Expect more boycotts, protests, and civil disobedience in 2026.   

How 2025 will fit into the Middle East historical timeline will depend on the unfinished business of so many conflicts, crises and wars. But the standout feature as we inch towards its end is how unrestrained powerful regional and international actors are — not least Israel. The task of reapplying restraint may be the great challenge of the years to come. 

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech